* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 09/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 33 33 32 30 31 33 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 33 33 32 30 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 21 24 19 23 25 36 41 46 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -1 -2 0 2 0 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 257 282 287 288 293 288 271 267 274 264 267 263 271 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 152 147 144 143 142 142 143 145 150 154 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 152 143 137 134 131 131 134 140 146 152 154 151 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 45 45 46 46 49 50 52 50 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -4 -20 -26 -33 -28 -22 -12 -19 -15 -37 -41 -40 200 MB DIV -27 -31 -43 -32 -17 3 5 14 23 34 11 21 20 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 2 2 6 1 LAND (KM) 717 716 734 746 755 762 748 752 786 791 670 637 552 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.7 13.6 14.6 15.9 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.3 51.0 51.4 51.7 51.8 51.9 52.1 53.0 54.3 56.2 58.3 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 4 2 1 1 3 6 9 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 26 28 28 28 27 25 18 17 20 26 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 4. 8. 8. 7. 5. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 49.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 09/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.4% 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 1.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 09/20/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 09/20/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 33 33 32 30 31 33 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 33 33 32 30 31 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 23 27 31 31 30 28 29 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 22 26 26 25 23 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT