* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 09/20/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 40 40 38 37 38 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 40 40 38 37 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 36 37 36 35 35 34 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 15 17 18 16 19 18 26 28 37 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 -2 -2 1 7 1 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 217 248 257 268 266 267 263 272 274 252 261 270 255 SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 150 145 141 138 135 134 135 138 144 151 152 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 151 142 134 130 124 122 125 130 139 146 144 138 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 45 45 44 47 47 51 51 52 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 1 -15 -25 -30 -27 -18 -16 -18 -27 -46 -57 -46 200 MB DIV 0 -28 -37 -48 -35 -2 13 1 -7 36 33 17 -10 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 6 6 LAND (KM) 834 845 878 899 916 937 932 954 972 1047 993 1001 911 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.4 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.3 13.6 14.0 15.1 16.6 18.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.4 49.0 49.6 49.9 50.3 50.4 50.6 51.2 52.4 54.0 55.7 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 4 1 0 2 6 10 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 43 40 39 38 33 33 27 19 9 23 32 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 47.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 09/20/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.25 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 21.5% 17.5% 12.8% 10.5% 12.2% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 14.5% 27.1% 34.9% 25.3% 6.0% 8.2% 1.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.2% 9.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 16.6% 20.6% 13.0% 5.7% 7.0% 3.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 09/20/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 09/20/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 40 40 38 37 38 40 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 34 36 37 37 35 34 35 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 30 29 30 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 24 25 25 23 22 23 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT