* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 09/20/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 38 40 39 39 39 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 38 40 39 39 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 29 29 27 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 7 12 16 20 18 23 25 32 35 39 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -3 0 2 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 113 170 268 266 260 272 270 277 269 274 266 275 267 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 157 150 144 139 136 136 138 141 147 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 168 159 148 140 131 124 124 128 135 143 151 145 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 45 44 42 43 45 49 50 54 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 6 -1 -13 -21 -31 -28 -19 -11 -20 -31 -54 -59 200 MB DIV 16 -2 -32 -40 -45 0 6 0 -10 0 20 23 13 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 2 0 -1 0 0 3 4 7 7 LAND (KM) 778 764 756 784 820 873 904 900 909 943 939 876 876 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.0 12.8 13.2 13.2 13.4 14.0 15.2 16.6 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 47.9 48.8 49.5 50.0 50.6 50.8 50.9 51.2 52.2 53.6 55.5 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 7 4 1 1 3 8 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 34 34 36 36 32 32 28 15 16 36 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -4. -8. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 13. 15. 14. 14. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 46.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 09/20/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.22 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.92 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.9% 14.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 23.9% 24.0% 12.9% 3.4% 5.2% 3.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 14.2% 13.1% 7.6% 1.1% 1.8% 3.9% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 09/20/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 09/20/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 38 40 39 39 39 42 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 28 33 37 39 38 38 38 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 30 34 36 35 35 35 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 23 27 29 28 28 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT