* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 39 39 39 38 39 42 42 35 25 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 39 39 39 38 39 42 35 32 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 36 37 38 39 42 47 40 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 9 16 16 10 13 16 18 22 24 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 0 4 8 9 SHEAR DIR 321 300 332 357 360 5 308 280 277 267 275 269 266 SST (C) 26.5 26.1 23.7 21.4 19.5 20.4 19.6 17.1 15.0 15.9 15.9 14.3 5.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 96 83 76 82 82 78 75 76 75 72 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 100 82 73 68 73 75 74 72 72 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.2 -55.8 -56.3 -56.8 -56.9 -56.5 -56.2 -56.4 -55.6 -54.1 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 59 55 56 54 61 65 69 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 9 7 5 6 9 10 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 61 54 41 32 19 -5 9 28 57 52 49 1 -12 200 MB DIV 0 -2 -5 -7 20 14 5 17 13 4 16 -3 -115 700-850 TADV 2 1 5 2 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 28 41 5 28 LAND (KM) 1026 836 696 605 543 571 838 1360 1096 399 -98 64 -93 LAT (DEG N) 38.2 40.0 41.3 42.2 43.0 44.2 45.9 47.8 49.4 51.0 53.8 56.6 58.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.6 46.7 42.1 34.6 25.3 15.8 8.0 1.5 -6.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 11 8 8 13 23 31 32 30 25 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 19 CX,CY: 2/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. -1. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -9. -9. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 12. 12. 5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.2 48.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.5% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 39 39 39 38 39 42 35 32 25 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 35 35 34 35 38 31 28 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 29 28 29 32 25 22 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 21 20 21 24 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT