* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 43 42 41 38 48 46 35 24 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 43 42 41 38 48 46 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 41 42 41 42 48 51 42 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 5 10 16 17 19 22 27 30 40 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 4 16 25 SHEAR DIR 309 291 308 314 337 354 319 284 272 277 275 259 255 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 26.4 25.7 25.5 21.2 16.8 14.6 14.1 15.0 13.3 5.5 5.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 120 113 111 85 75 74 74 74 72 68 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 101 103 97 94 75 71 71 71 71 69 67 69 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -56.7 -57.6 -57.6 -56.7 -56.3 -55.5 -52.3 -50.5 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 62 64 65 66 63 62 63 68 64 58 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 8 6 4 13 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 31 13 0 -17 16 41 52 49 63 7 67 200 MB DIV 23 9 7 0 -9 27 14 31 16 12 8 13 -177 700-850 TADV 4 1 4 5 2 6 14 16 29 40 0 0 22 LAND (KM) 1330 1190 1041 888 762 659 860 1376 1023 403 111 167 -375 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 37.0 38.6 40.3 41.8 44.4 46.7 49.1 51.0 53.2 56.1 58.3 60.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 47.0 46.7 46.5 46.4 45.3 41.5 34.2 25.0 16.0 7.9 -0.5 -12.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 16 15 14 22 31 30 29 26 27 35 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 18 CX,CY: 5/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 2. -4. -11. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -4. -3. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 18. 16. 5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.5 47.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 17.1% 14.7% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 13.2% 5.7% 0.9% 0.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.1% 6.8% 3.6% 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 43 42 41 38 48 46 35 29 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 39 38 37 34 44 42 31 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 33 32 31 28 38 36 25 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 24 23 22 19 29 27 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT