* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 46 43 41 38 45 42 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 46 43 41 38 45 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 45 43 44 48 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 8 6 9 16 19 19 23 23 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 10 19 SHEAR DIR 291 286 297 289 302 345 355 353 317 306 311 253 248 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.8 26.0 23.9 19.4 15.7 16.9 17.9 15.8 6.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 122 120 115 117 100 82 76 78 81 78 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 103 106 105 101 101 87 75 73 74 76 74 71 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -56.7 -57.6 -58.0 -57.9 -57.8 -57.1 -54.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 49 49 53 58 60 68 66 71 71 71 59 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 7 5 3 10 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 67 51 31 26 16 -18 -42 -35 -8 -2 32 53 5 200 MB DIV 4 8 18 13 13 -20 15 17 12 -1 -2 22 -158 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 2 4 6 12 20 22 63 70 42 106 LAND (KM) 1649 1598 1513 1403 1260 999 894 1150 1481 821 204 -93 -321 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.8 33.8 35.1 36.8 40.3 43.7 46.2 47.8 48.4 49.8 52.8 57.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 48.3 47.4 46.5 45.7 44.4 42.5 37.8 29.9 20.3 10.7 0.3 -10.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 14 17 18 18 19 24 31 32 34 37 40 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -9. -10. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 13. 11. 8. 15. 12. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.2 49.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.4% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 1.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.0% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 45 46 43 41 38 45 35 30 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 43 40 38 35 42 32 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 37 34 32 29 36 26 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 28 25 23 20 27 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT