* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 49 46 41 37 42 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 49 46 41 37 42 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 38 43 47 47 45 44 46 49 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 9 10 13 24 26 15 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 326 314 297 286 291 303 346 340 358 2 360 303 281 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.6 27.1 26.7 25.9 25.7 23.0 21.3 17.9 18.2 18.0 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 119 126 123 116 114 95 88 78 79 78 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 97 103 110 108 102 100 84 79 73 74 73 73 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.9 -56.8 -57.7 -58.2 -58.3 -58.5 -58.0 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 48 49 53 60 68 66 65 67 68 55 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 7 6 5 11 16 850 MB ENV VOR 94 82 68 48 21 5 -18 -43 -58 -70 -84 -33 30 200 MB DIV -8 17 14 1 12 18 3 5 6 0 -4 -3 19 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 3 3 4 7 17 24 31 29 24 18 LAND (KM) 1732 1757 1747 1693 1604 1346 1115 1038 1303 1498 1048 582 266 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.1 31.3 32.0 33.1 36.3 39.8 43.3 45.6 46.5 46.3 46.4 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 49.8 49.0 47.9 46.8 44.8 43.1 40.8 36.0 29.1 21.7 14.7 8.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 9 13 16 19 19 20 23 26 25 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -8. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 19. 16. 11. 7. 12. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.3 50.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.6% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.7% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 45 49 49 46 41 37 42 47 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 42 46 46 43 38 34 39 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 41 41 38 33 29 34 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 32 32 29 24 20 25 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT