* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 45 47 44 38 31 30 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 45 47 44 38 31 30 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 47 45 41 41 45 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 13 15 12 10 13 22 28 23 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 339 319 312 294 286 296 336 349 7 24 48 20 357 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 27.1 26.3 25.8 24.5 21.7 20.6 20.2 18.3 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 117 120 126 119 115 104 88 85 84 79 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 97 100 103 111 106 100 90 79 77 77 74 74 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -56.1 -57.3 -57.6 -58.0 -58.0 -57.8 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 47 49 57 62 65 61 58 58 57 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 7 5 2 3 13 850 MB ENV VOR 98 91 82 72 51 15 -5 -12 -28 -35 -68 -88 -35 200 MB DIV -18 -7 11 10 0 11 13 -13 -16 13 -4 5 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 2 1 6 5 19 26 24 4 5 LAND (KM) 1694 1758 1787 1780 1713 1496 1245 1073 1154 1488 1511 987 436 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.0 30.8 31.0 31.8 34.4 37.7 40.9 43.5 44.6 44.8 44.6 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 50.6 50.0 49.0 48.0 45.9 44.1 42.4 39.1 34.0 27.8 21.2 14.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 7 10 13 18 18 18 18 21 23 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -20. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 14. 8. 1. 0. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 50.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.9% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.8% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 42 45 47 44 38 31 30 41 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 43 45 42 36 29 28 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 38 40 37 31 24 23 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 29 31 28 22 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT