* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 41 45 45 46 42 38 35 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 41 45 45 46 42 38 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 48 46 44 42 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 16 14 15 10 11 13 17 12 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 358 342 327 316 308 317 341 340 354 21 38 68 41 SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.7 24.8 21.1 21.3 18.8 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 117 115 119 127 122 116 112 105 85 86 79 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 98 95 101 109 106 100 95 88 75 77 72 72 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 -55.5 -56.2 -57.0 -57.3 -57.5 -57.8 -57.7 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 44 47 48 50 56 64 67 62 60 55 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 96 94 79 61 20 11 -7 -20 -35 -27 -47 -66 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -11 6 12 8 6 -6 1 9 5 2 4 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 1 3 3 7 12 18 14 22 21 LAND (KM) 1617 1689 1736 1724 1663 1446 1171 960 901 1074 1353 1644 1262 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 31.7 31.3 31.5 32.2 34.6 37.7 40.5 42.9 44.4 45.2 45.6 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.6 49.9 49.7 49.1 48.3 46.8 45.7 44.8 43.0 39.7 35.5 30.5 24.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 7 11 15 16 14 13 15 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 15. 16. 12. 8. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.4 49.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.5% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.0% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/05/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 41 45 45 46 42 38 35 34 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 39 43 43 44 40 36 33 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 38 38 39 35 31 28 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 30 30 31 27 23 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT