* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 41 43 44 46 42 37 34 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 41 43 44 46 42 37 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 46 49 46 44 44 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 16 16 18 16 11 8 7 18 16 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 10 356 345 325 310 300 336 344 341 8 1 343 291 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.4 26.0 21.6 20.5 17.1 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 116 117 123 123 117 110 115 87 84 77 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 102 97 98 105 107 102 95 96 77 76 73 74 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.6 -56.1 -56.4 -57.1 -57.3 -57.9 -57.9 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 46 48 50 56 64 68 67 65 66 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 7 5 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR 91 91 98 91 74 34 5 -10 -11 -16 -12 -22 -13 200 MB DIV -15 5 -9 -15 4 6 20 -4 -10 0 18 0 5 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 -1 5 3 7 9 17 18 26 6 LAND (KM) 1569 1658 1746 1775 1757 1559 1289 1041 885 968 1248 1522 946 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 32.0 31.2 31.0 31.3 33.5 36.5 39.5 42.3 44.4 45.9 47.0 47.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 49.8 49.8 49.3 48.5 46.9 45.7 44.9 43.8 41.1 36.6 29.9 21.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 5 6 9 15 16 15 14 15 20 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -14. -18. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 16. 12. 7. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.9 49.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.5% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.8% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 37 41 43 44 46 42 37 34 34 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 39 41 42 44 40 35 32 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 34 36 37 39 35 30 27 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 27 28 30 26 21 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT