* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 45 47 47 46 41 37 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 45 47 47 46 41 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 46 50 49 46 47 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 19 17 18 15 14 7 11 19 22 17 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 16 9 356 341 322 307 319 346 343 359 3 330 276 SST (C) 26.8 27.5 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.2 26.2 26.3 25.5 22.2 19.4 16.4 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 130 123 121 122 128 118 119 111 90 81 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 111 103 100 103 111 102 101 93 79 74 73 74 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -56.3 -56.7 -57.3 -57.7 -57.4 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 47 50 54 60 66 67 64 67 73 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 8 850 MB ENV VOR 89 90 94 97 88 50 6 14 3 -5 11 12 -3 200 MB DIV -16 -11 2 -7 -11 9 8 5 -9 13 12 17 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 0 1 3 3 2 8 16 24 5 3 LAND (KM) 1488 1578 1672 1730 1751 1620 1348 1070 879 882 1112 1594 881 LAT (DEG N) 33.8 32.8 31.9 31.4 31.3 32.8 35.7 38.8 41.5 43.8 45.7 47.6 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 48.4 49.3 49.6 49.4 48.8 47.4 46.3 45.6 44.8 42.6 38.5 31.5 21.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 7 5 6 13 15 15 14 15 21 30 34 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 11. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.8 48.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.2% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 43 45 47 47 46 41 37 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 42 44 44 43 38 34 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 37 39 39 38 33 29 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 30 30 29 24 20 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT