* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 46 47 47 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 46 47 47 44 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 40 45 50 51 49 49 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 25 21 18 17 18 13 10 10 13 11 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 28 18 9 2 339 325 316 340 344 5 16 351 249 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.6 25.7 25.4 24.2 21.3 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 130 125 123 126 122 121 111 108 100 87 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 110 104 101 107 105 102 92 90 85 78 75 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -55.7 -56.0 -56.4 -57.1 -57.4 -57.7 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 45 46 47 48 54 58 63 63 61 58 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 86 88 90 92 93 63 38 24 10 -5 -32 -24 -10 200 MB DIV -4 -11 -11 4 -10 12 1 14 0 -2 4 4 23 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 7 2 4 9 12 12 12 LAND (KM) 1413 1503 1597 1669 1707 1624 1399 1153 967 891 966 1195 1605 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 33.7 32.7 32.0 31.7 32.6 34.9 37.4 39.6 41.2 42.4 43.6 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.2 48.9 49.1 48.8 48.1 47.3 46.9 46.2 45.0 42.5 38.5 32.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 9 5 3 9 13 13 10 10 13 20 26 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 13 CX,CY: -6/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -14. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 14. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.8 47.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.4% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 46 47 47 44 44 43 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 40 42 43 44 44 41 41 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 36 37 38 38 35 35 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 29 30 30 27 27 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT