* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 45 45 47 48 46 44 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 45 45 47 48 46 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 34 38 43 49 53 52 49 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 31 26 22 19 21 15 13 7 11 9 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -4 -1 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 33 30 19 10 359 327 317 323 338 350 9 21 29 SST (C) 26.2 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.0 27.2 27.5 26.2 26.7 25.3 25.6 22.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 125 127 129 122 125 131 117 121 107 110 92 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 109 110 110 102 106 114 100 101 89 91 80 77 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -57.4 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 36 40 45 47 47 52 56 62 63 65 60 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 78 85 90 93 93 79 50 14 19 -5 -28 -64 -88 200 MB DIV -1 0 -12 -12 1 -3 11 9 -1 -5 -3 -24 -4 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -5 -5 -2 1 3 5 5 9 9 15 12 LAND (KM) 1345 1433 1550 1662 1751 1761 1572 1307 1067 927 912 1045 1312 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 34.5 33.2 32.1 31.3 31.4 33.4 36.1 38.6 40.5 41.9 43.0 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.6 48.5 48.9 48.8 47.8 46.8 46.3 46.1 45.4 43.8 40.9 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 10 6 7 13 13 11 9 10 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 3 3 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 15 CX,CY: -10/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 17. 18. 16. 14. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.7 46.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.4% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 40 43 45 45 47 48 46 44 40 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 40 42 42 44 45 43 41 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 36 36 38 39 37 35 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 27 27 29 30 28 26 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT