* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 35 37 41 42 44 46 48 47 44 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 35 37 41 42 44 46 48 47 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 28 27 27 28 29 32 36 43 49 50 48 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 33 30 25 21 19 20 16 11 10 13 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 40 38 31 24 11 336 312 291 326 309 334 349 360 SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.4 26.8 26.6 27.0 27.0 25.8 25.7 24.2 20.3 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 125 131 123 119 125 126 114 112 100 82 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 106 111 116 107 101 110 111 99 94 85 74 74 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -56.7 -57.7 -58.2 -58.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 34 35 39 44 45 48 52 56 63 65 65 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 67 73 83 88 89 91 68 27 8 16 -9 -29 -63 200 MB DIV -16 6 0 -10 -8 -13 5 15 17 -10 -5 0 11 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -11 -7 -6 -2 0 8 3 5 13 24 35 LAND (KM) 1228 1269 1389 1555 1703 1875 1796 1548 1254 1030 966 1081 1393 LAT (DEG N) 37.2 36.2 34.7 33.0 31.6 30.2 31.3 34.1 37.3 40.2 42.4 44.2 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 47.1 48.5 49.4 49.7 48.6 46.8 45.3 44.7 44.0 42.5 39.7 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 16 12 7 13 16 16 13 13 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 4 4 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 14. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.2 45.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.44 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.9% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 35 37 41 42 44 46 48 47 44 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 41 43 45 47 46 43 38 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 36 38 40 42 41 38 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 27 29 31 33 32 29 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT