* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 39 41 42 44 48 51 51 48 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 39 41 42 44 48 51 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 26 28 30 35 42 50 55 53 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 38 35 33 29 24 19 20 12 10 4 4 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 41 40 37 31 20 1 322 309 315 292 307 6 29 SST (C) 25.8 26.1 26.1 27.2 27.5 26.9 27.0 26.4 26.2 25.4 24.7 22.6 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 114 117 118 129 131 122 125 120 117 108 101 87 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 102 104 115 114 103 108 105 100 90 83 74 65 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 -57.1 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 42 47 49 54 60 66 66 65 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 42 69 79 87 89 90 72 47 32 59 49 -11 -33 200 MB DIV -26 -14 7 -3 -15 4 1 20 17 0 -11 -17 0 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -11 -11 -5 -2 2 3 5 4 5 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1250 1258 1338 1484 1635 1821 1750 1455 1136 874 726 621 543 LAT (DEG N) 37.8 36.9 35.6 33.9 32.4 30.8 31.8 34.8 37.8 40.3 41.9 43.0 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 45.5 46.9 48.1 48.6 48.0 46.5 45.9 46.3 46.8 46.9 47.2 47.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 17 13 7 12 16 14 10 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 2 4 5 4 5 3 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 18. 21. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.8 43.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 36 39 41 42 44 48 51 51 48 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 38 40 41 43 47 50 50 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 36 37 39 43 46 46 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 28 29 31 35 38 38 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT