* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972018 08/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 42 42 41 43 44 47 49 45 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 42 42 41 43 44 47 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 38 43 49 56 61 58 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 36 36 35 33 30 23 19 18 11 8 6 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 39 41 40 37 31 8 331 316 303 336 287 337 17 SST (C) 25.3 25.8 26.1 26.0 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.4 26.1 25.9 25.0 24.1 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 109 114 118 117 129 123 122 131 117 114 104 96 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 99 103 104 114 105 104 115 101 96 87 80 67 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.7 -55.9 -56.3 -56.3 -56.5 -56.3 -57.0 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 34 35 35 37 42 49 51 56 63 68 66 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 39 68 79 87 92 90 57 35 58 55 36 -31 200 MB DIV -13 -30 -16 8 -3 -5 -10 14 11 28 0 -20 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -9 -11 -11 -6 -1 1 8 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1247 1214 1238 1324 1473 1753 1818 1628 1302 1001 792 671 570 LAT (DEG N) 38.9 38.2 37.1 35.7 34.0 31.3 31.0 33.1 36.3 39.1 41.2 42.5 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.1 43.8 45.5 47.0 48.1 48.7 47.2 46.0 45.9 46.5 46.8 47.0 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 18 19 17 9 8 15 16 13 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 2 4 4 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 8. 9. 12. 14. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.9 42.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 40 42 42 41 43 44 47 49 45 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 40 40 39 41 42 45 47 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 35 34 36 37 40 42 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 28 27 29 30 33 35 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT