* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 10/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 40 44 45 49 51 51 48 48 46 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 40 44 43 47 49 49 46 46 44 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 27 28 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 12 14 17 19 20 23 17 19 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 -1 -5 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 262 274 274 281 298 279 287 290 282 264 253 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.2 27.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 159 158 160 156 145 148 147 139 133 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 141 142 142 142 139 129 131 131 122 116 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 76 72 62 56 54 56 63 60 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 5 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 41 51 61 54 41 27 -7 -24 -13 -2 -21 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 46 42 54 62 64 28 20 18 31 30 28 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 4 4 0 -6 0 0 10 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 321 327 333 318 280 157 75 50 24 171 342 343 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 113 113 108 105 105 108 105 87 113 82 43 32 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. 6. 4. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 20. 24. 26. 26. 23. 23. 21. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.7 81.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 108.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.72 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 19.8% 14.3% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 33.1% 15.0% 5.9% 3.6% 11.3% 15.3% 30.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 4.6% 19.3% 10.1% 5.7% 1.3% 3.8% 9.4% 10.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 10/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 10/24/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 34 40 44 43 47 49 49 46 46 44 42 43 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 32 38 42 41 45 47 47 44 44 42 40 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 33 37 36 40 42 42 39 39 37 35 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 26 30 29 33 35 35 32 32 30 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT