* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 46 54 62 68 73 79 79 77 77 80 84 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 39 46 54 62 68 73 79 79 77 77 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 44 52 59 64 66 64 62 63 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 22 20 16 11 11 8 7 7 8 17 24 24 16 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -7 -6 -6 0 -1 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 50 76 78 88 95 114 112 92 155 229 239 258 237 251 225 214 189 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 137 139 142 141 143 144 144 147 148 148 148 145 148 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 137 139 142 141 143 144 144 144 145 145 143 136 139 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 75 68 67 62 56 54 55 52 52 47 47 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 86 79 82 95 109 108 96 67 52 52 42 45 48 44 42 22 200 MB DIV 2 -7 -7 -2 20 50 98 56 68 59 49 32 43 48 28 -5 2 700-850 TADV -7 4 4 4 5 2 2 -3 -12 -12 -13 -3 2 11 5 5 -3 LAND (KM) 1401 1584 1765 1707 1663 1638 1426 1284 1169 1070 1002 1043 1008 989 897 757 707 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 17 15 14 12 11 11 13 13 10 10 12 12 9 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 8 10 11 13 22 18 27 28 25 34 54 44 60 48 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 234 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 14. 21. 29. 37. 43. 48. 54. 54. 52. 52. 55. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 30.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.6% 11.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 9.5% 4.7% 1.2% 0.8% 4.6% 6.7% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 7.4% Consensus: 2.4% 10.7% 5.5% 3.2% 0.3% 1.7% 5.8% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 09/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 39 46 54 62 68 73 79 79 77 77 80 84 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 37 44 52 60 66 71 77 77 75 75 78 82 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 33 40 48 56 62 67 73 73 71 71 74 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 33 41 49 55 60 66 66 64 64 67 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT