* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 31 37 43 52 56 60 64 66 66 66 68 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 31 37 43 52 56 60 64 66 66 66 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 28 32 37 41 44 45 45 45 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 23 21 20 15 11 7 3 5 14 17 22 21 28 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 -2 -5 -5 -1 1 0 2 -3 -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 60 72 81 92 90 74 66 315 282 270 279 259 254 252 248 248 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 136 141 143 140 136 133 133 133 137 143 146 145 148 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 136 141 143 140 136 132 132 132 137 142 143 141 142 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 67 65 67 65 65 60 61 57 55 50 50 49 51 51 55 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 31 37 40 23 30 22 26 17 11 1 -18 -27 -32 -41 -47 200 MB DIV 21 19 23 30 22 35 14 -23 -33 -10 7 23 17 19 26 22 2 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -1 0 -2 0 2 0 -1 2 6 10 10 10 10 8 LAND (KM) 1606 1640 1587 1546 1528 1532 1350 1224 1106 1027 1018 922 804 634 366 203 200 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.5 14.5 15.8 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.5 33.0 34.3 35.6 36.9 39.2 41.6 43.8 46.2 48.8 51.4 54.2 57.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 13 13 15 15 14 14 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 10 16 20 18 29 21 29 18 21 41 43 47 39 60 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 12. 18. 27. 31. 35. 39. 41. 41. 41. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 31.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.1% 10.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 10.3% 9.5% 5.2% 2.0% 4.5% 4.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 8.6% 7.1% 4.4% 0.7% 1.6% 5.2% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 27 31 37 43 52 56 60 64 66 66 66 68 67 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 29 35 41 50 54 58 62 64 64 64 66 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 25 31 37 46 50 54 58 60 60 60 62 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 25 31 40 44 48 52 54 54 54 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT