* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 08/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 45 51 56 62 65 67 70 69 70 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 45 51 56 62 65 67 70 69 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 35 39 44 49 52 53 52 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 16 18 14 12 10 5 2 8 13 19 19 26 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 -2 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 48 49 55 62 95 98 100 49 300 293 258 280 249 255 228 234 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 135 134 132 141 143 135 134 132 134 141 143 147 147 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 135 134 132 141 143 135 134 132 134 141 143 146 144 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 66 65 66 62 61 59 54 51 51 51 51 53 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 62 52 40 30 23 36 34 39 43 26 23 24 15 12 -8 -10 -15 200 MB DIV 47 60 41 25 9 25 21 30 -15 -30 -25 3 25 38 22 32 6 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -8 -7 -5 2 3 0 0 -3 -1 0 3 7 12 3 4 LAND (KM) 1020 1192 1355 1529 1692 1616 1588 1405 1227 1093 969 967 813 707 536 243 78 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.0 27.6 29.2 30.9 32.5 35.4 38.4 41.2 44.0 46.5 49.4 52.1 55.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 15 14 13 13 14 14 16 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 8 6 5 20 17 27 20 32 16 29 40 41 39 40 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 20. 26. 31. 37. 40. 42. 45. 44. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 26.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 08/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.8% 13.4% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 3.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.8% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.1% 6.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.4% 4.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 08/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 45 51 56 62 65 67 70 69 70 69 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 31 36 43 49 54 60 63 65 68 67 68 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 31 38 44 49 55 58 60 63 62 63 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 24 31 37 42 48 51 53 56 55 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT