* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 06/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 34 29 25 22 21 19 19 19 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 34 29 25 22 21 19 19 19 21 21 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 36 36 34 33 33 34 35 37 40 42 44 41 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 9 12 13 14 19 25 23 20 10 12 16 16 19 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 49 11 33 42 37 46 45 74 94 120 161 183 204 211 230 237 SST (C) 23.5 24.8 26.2 26.6 25.5 20.9 19.6 13.7 9.5 11.1 14.6 15.9 17.0 17.3 17.6 16.0 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 91 102 115 120 109 83 79 69 67 69 73 75 76 75 73 70 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 85 95 98 91 74 72 66 66 68 70 72 72 70 68 66 69 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.6 -57.4 -57.5 -57.8 -57.9 -57.9 -57.5 -57.3 -57.1 -57.5 -57.8 -57.8 -57.6 -57.3 -57.0 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 62 63 60 59 54 54 53 52 46 48 42 38 35 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 8 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -12 -18 -15 -30 -58 -81 -69 -60 -82 -92 -69 -61 -55 -60 -6 200 MB DIV 16 14 -3 -17 1 -21 -30 -17 -23 -42 -5 -15 1 -11 5 28 32 700-850 TADV -6 0 6 -3 2 3 10 8 4 -8 12 -17 -5 -3 -5 -1 12 LAND (KM) 434 449 495 488 487 510 453 341 285 703 1256 1586 1038 560 247 8 95 LAT (DEG N) 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.5 40.5 41.9 43.7 45.3 46.2 45.9 45.0 44.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 66.4 65.4 64.3 63.1 60.5 57.9 54.6 50.0 43.8 36.5 29.0 21.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 9 9 10 12 13 17 20 24 26 27 24 19 12 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -18. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -9. -9. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.5 67.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 06/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.9% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952020 INVEST 06/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 06/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 36 34 29 25 22 21 19 19 19 21 21 26 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 34 32 27 23 20 19 17 17 17 19 19 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 28 23 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT