* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 39 50 54 52 49 40 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 39 50 54 52 49 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 26 25 27 32 35 38 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 31 29 29 27 16 15 17 14 16 48 31 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 5 3 3 0 6 0 2 -8 -5 6 SHEAR DIR 248 243 238 243 253 250 229 199 170 285 345 347 283 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.5 25.5 25.1 24.6 25.0 24.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 131 131 128 120 111 108 104 108 98 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 121 119 119 117 109 101 98 94 97 86 89 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.8 -56.0 -56.5 -57.8 -57.3 -57.9 -58.1 -58.4 -57.9 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 53 52 48 51 55 55 49 49 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 15 22 23 19 18 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 17 10 0 0 14 64 60 32 -7 -27 -77 200 MB DIV 37 56 70 45 4 68 77 86 -7 -27 -44 19 10 700-850 TADV 8 8 6 1 5 14 13 12 11 -1 0 2 12 LAND (KM) 1586 1613 1680 1766 1848 2056 2255 2287 1935 1667 1585 1383 1130 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.4 21.0 22.7 24.7 27.3 30.2 32.0 32.3 33.2 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.7 48.8 48.4 47.8 47.3 46.2 45.0 44.5 46.0 49.2 53.4 56.6 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 7 8 8 11 12 15 17 17 17 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 18 15 12 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 13. 9. 6. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 14. 25. 29. 27. 24. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 48.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.59 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/24/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/24/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 32 39 50 54 52 49 40 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 36 47 51 49 46 37 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 32 43 47 45 42 33 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 25 36 40 38 35 26 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT