* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 55 68 75 80 85 87 92 95 96 94 91 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 55 68 75 80 85 87 92 95 96 94 91 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 46 55 61 66 71 76 79 79 78 79 75 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 13 14 16 9 12 2 12 5 10 14 14 6 8 29 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 2 -1 0 -3 0 0 -2 -4 0 4 10 12 SHEAR DIR 285 270 256 240 263 214 206 105 310 266 209 186 213 222 223 192 220 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.1 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 128 130 132 132 124 118 119 119 117 116 116 116 111 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 108 107 111 114 115 107 101 101 100 97 95 100 103 100 72 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.2 -56.0 -55.8 -55.7 -55.4 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 6 7 7 6 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 48 50 51 52 56 58 56 56 57 55 51 49 46 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 25 29 34 32 32 33 33 37 40 42 42 44 41 850 MB ENV VOR 125 128 136 147 142 138 157 158 142 124 124 121 114 125 82 106 122 200 MB DIV 14 -1 8 16 20 60 54 62 16 36 32 94 78 44 50 88 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -4 1 17 19 2 6 10 9 6 2 0 10 -18 -44 LAND (KM) 1320 1300 1282 1293 1304 1389 1394 1369 1389 1441 1351 1250 1199 1122 977 831 525 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 1 4 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 11 19 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 30 30 30 22 16 10 3 3 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. 16. 20. 20. 19. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 38. 45. 50. 55. 57. 62. 65. 66. 64. 61. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 55.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.90 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.4% 10.7% 7.2% 6.2% 9.1% 11.5% 19.9% Logistic: 1.4% 4.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 4.3% 2.4% 2.1% 3.1% 4.0% 6.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 45 55 68 75 80 85 87 92 95 96 94 91 81 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 51 64 71 76 81 83 88 91 92 90 87 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 45 58 65 70 75 77 82 85 86 84 81 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 48 55 60 65 67 72 75 76 74 71 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT