* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 22 24 25 29 30 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 22 24 25 29 30 32 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 26 28 29 27 31 25 28 24 33 33 33 30 30 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 2 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 -3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 270 278 284 279 283 293 289 293 293 303 289 285 283 268 267 260 253 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 155 154 153 157 158 158 162 160 162 162 163 164 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 148 148 147 148 152 151 150 153 154 153 151 149 150 154 157 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 60 58 60 56 55 54 58 60 67 72 74 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -42 -38 -34 -31 -24 -22 -20 -13 -8 13 18 44 40 57 60 92 200 MB DIV -4 4 15 8 -21 -6 -5 -1 -15 -2 8 -1 34 34 23 30 48 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -9 -8 -5 -1 0 0 0 1 4 4 0 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 606 569 541 529 509 535 346 168 91 79 65 46 41 81 11 22 84 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.7 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 57.6 58.3 58.9 59.7 61.4 63.4 65.3 67.0 68.8 70.8 72.9 74.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 6 4 5 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 68 65 60 54 53 55 84 88 97 61 54 64 63 60 65 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -13. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 56.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.9% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 22 24 25 29 30 32 32 34 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 22 24 25 29 30 32 32 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 21 21 20 20 21 23 24 28 29 31 31 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT