* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 23 21 21 19 21 23 28 30 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 23 21 21 19 21 23 28 30 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 31 30 30 28 30 26 29 27 24 21 32 36 37 32 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 278 279 283 281 284 292 299 284 293 303 304 296 291 281 273 276 267 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 155 155 156 151 157 158 160 160 161 161 160 159 162 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 146 147 148 149 146 151 151 151 151 156 156 153 148 149 144 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 60 61 58 61 56 56 52 55 56 65 68 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -35 -39 -43 -35 -27 -24 -23 -32 -19 -18 21 23 58 59 73 77 200 MB DIV 11 3 2 11 8 -14 2 -26 -12 -12 -9 -9 -1 23 37 44 31 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -7 -5 -4 -9 -4 0 -1 3 0 0 2 3 -5 0 -1 LAND (KM) 732 679 639 613 586 541 545 391 193 89 107 117 101 139 78 76 84 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.4 17.2 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.8 56.4 57.0 57.6 59.1 60.8 62.8 64.7 66.3 68.0 70.2 72.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 9 11 11 10 6 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 53 56 63 68 70 59 52 55 73 94 93 79 54 69 68 76 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -29. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -9. -7. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 55.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 26 25 23 21 21 19 21 23 28 30 32 32 33 35 18HR AGO 30 29 28 26 25 23 21 21 19 21 23 28 30 32 32 33 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 23 21 19 19 17 19 21 26 28 30 30 31 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT