* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 34 33 31 32 29 28 28 30 27 24 28 38 39 37 34 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 3 1 1 1 0 2 1 -5 -4 -3 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 274 279 281 284 281 283 292 285 287 288 301 294 292 285 274 269 263 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 152 153 156 155 152 157 160 159 162 163 161 163 164 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 143 144 146 150 149 146 151 153 150 156 160 158 157 157 151 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 61 60 63 60 62 61 59 57 55 57 61 66 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -38 -41 -43 -45 -31 -34 -26 -33 -28 -22 0 16 33 55 71 92 200 MB DIV 5 14 16 11 11 10 6 -15 -3 -18 -17 -8 -16 23 42 55 46 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -8 -7 -4 -6 -7 -4 0 -3 4 0 2 1 0 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 815 776 732 694 655 595 540 538 319 128 48 57 15 70 56 123 278 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.6 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.5 55.1 55.7 56.3 57.6 59.4 61.3 63.4 65.3 67.0 68.8 71.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 8 11 13 12 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 57 54 53 56 62 71 57 52 55 89 89 95 53 59 68 86 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -25. -26. -29. -32. -35. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -14. -9. -7. -5. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 53.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 27 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT