* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 20 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 20 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 34 35 32 30 25 25 26 26 30 27 22 21 29 33 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 3 3 1 3 1 0 -1 -2 0 -7 -4 -4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 267 273 277 281 279 280 280 282 284 286 287 298 283 294 293 280 275 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 152 152 152 153 155 156 155 157 162 159 156 159 166 166 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 147 145 145 145 148 149 149 150 153 150 148 153 159 159 158 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 61 62 63 66 61 62 60 59 58 55 55 58 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -30 -34 -36 -40 -46 -29 -35 -21 -29 -29 -27 -9 -1 23 46 69 200 MB DIV 40 17 13 31 24 23 18 1 -5 -5 -18 -9 -12 2 10 7 34 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -9 -6 -7 -3 -7 -9 -3 -1 -3 1 -3 -1 -3 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 791 797 749 703 671 613 584 547 537 319 125 5 31 24 11 62 -6 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 17.9 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.8 54.6 55.2 55.7 56.9 57.9 59.5 61.2 63.2 64.9 66.6 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 9 8 9 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 67 60 57 56 57 70 71 54 48 55 84 84 82 55 54 57 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 34. 37. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -20. -23. -24. -24. -25. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -10. -4. 0. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 52.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 26 24 23 20 18 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 27 25 24 21 19 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 23 20 18 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT