* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 24 21 18 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 24 21 18 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 37 36 31 31 28 26 24 28 25 27 17 25 30 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 2 3 1 1 3 0 2 -2 0 -2 -6 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 259 270 276 283 285 281 285 288 296 282 286 294 300 285 291 285 272 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.7 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 150 152 155 156 155 155 158 157 159 155 164 171 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 148 145 144 145 147 149 148 148 149 147 148 148 158 164 159 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 61 62 63 65 66 61 63 61 61 57 54 54 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -29 -32 -39 -41 -45 -38 -34 -33 -27 -36 -36 -25 -11 3 31 43 200 MB DIV 38 19 18 26 26 1 23 -4 11 -7 -3 -11 -16 -9 -20 20 25 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -9 -8 -5 -5 -1 -7 -3 0 -1 1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 793 826 852 796 757 684 649 609 600 388 188 24 33 -22 -48 11 101 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.4 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.6 53.5 54.3 54.9 56.2 57.3 58.7 60.4 62.3 64.0 65.5 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 67 61 57 56 67 75 67 53 50 67 89 72 69 49 62 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -25. -26. -25. -26. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -14. -15. -15. -11. -6. -0. 2. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 51.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 26 24 21 18 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 24 21 18 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 20 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT