* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 29 26 24 23 20 20 21 25 32 37 41 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 29 26 24 23 20 20 21 25 32 37 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 34 33 32 28 24 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 30 28 29 26 29 27 25 21 27 26 23 19 23 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 2 4 3 1 0 3 0 1 -3 0 -3 -7 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 263 269 273 274 280 269 277 277 290 275 290 294 300 289 297 295 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 154 155 154 152 152 153 156 155 155 158 161 158 162 167 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 154 153 151 146 144 146 148 149 149 150 152 148 156 158 160 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 59 61 62 63 65 66 63 65 62 63 59 56 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -9 -15 -24 -23 -35 -43 -28 -26 -29 -28 -35 -19 -13 0 9 36 200 MB DIV 12 13 35 37 29 39 15 32 7 19 -20 -8 -7 -1 -3 -5 34 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -6 -9 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 772 747 734 760 780 743 667 605 557 562 489 283 101 35 79 82 50 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.5 51.7 52.6 53.4 54.7 55.8 56.9 58.2 59.7 61.6 63.4 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 10 9 8 8 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 58 67 65 59 60 71 68 52 48 60 88 85 91 65 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 34. 37. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -23. -23. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -5. 2. 7. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 49.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.6% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 31 29 26 24 23 20 20 21 25 32 37 41 44 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 27 24 22 21 18 18 19 23 30 35 39 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 24 21 19 18 15 15 16 20 27 32 36 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT