* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 10/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 24 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 24 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 27 31 28 25 31 29 35 33 31 25 31 27 24 17 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 1 3 2 0 0 0 3 2 -1 -3 -2 -5 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 260 260 261 268 271 275 273 270 272 279 277 284 290 300 292 292 303 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 155 155 155 153 151 152 156 157 157 160 160 156 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 157 155 155 152 147 144 145 152 153 152 155 153 148 153 153 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 58 57 59 60 59 63 60 64 61 66 64 63 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 -3 -11 -24 -31 -32 -30 -18 -27 -11 -31 -13 -1 12 13 29 200 MB DIV 34 15 14 24 25 21 24 26 11 13 8 -25 -13 -1 -12 -11 19 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 0 0 -5 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 815 746 686 672 680 710 766 713 640 545 505 532 332 175 148 167 154 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.3 49.5 50.6 51.5 52.9 54.0 55.0 56.1 57.7 59.5 61.5 63.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 45 52 52 57 65 62 58 61 68 51 47 59 88 79 88 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -10. -15. -21. -25. -27. -28. -30. -30. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -4. -5. -10. -9. -10. -6. -1. 4. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 47.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.93 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.3% 9.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.5% 3.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 10/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 10/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 23 24 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 22 23 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 19 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT