* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 09/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 39 42 46 52 58 63 66 67 67 69 67 66 69 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 39 42 46 52 58 63 66 67 67 69 67 66 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 46 50 54 58 63 66 67 69 68 67 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 2 2 5 11 14 13 7 5 6 14 18 27 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 2 2 -2 -4 -4 -1 10 6 6 5 3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 42 357 335 264 229 151 104 91 91 117 272 252 267 258 272 260 272 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.7 27.2 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 128 123 124 135 128 125 127 123 120 121 128 132 132 133 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 123 118 121 132 124 120 121 114 111 113 119 118 115 114 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 72 71 71 71 68 64 66 63 64 61 62 59 57 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 18 18 18 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 14 13 14 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR 86 88 88 89 94 111 89 86 79 78 64 62 49 18 -3 12 21 200 MB DIV 34 35 29 28 18 5 1 -1 -8 10 3 26 26 32 23 30 -49 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 5 8 10 5 1 0 0 7 13 4 13 18 5 -4 LAND (KM) 249 360 472 604 736 1092 1402 1692 2040 2170 2129 2119 2176 2199 2267 2117 1980 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 15 14 14 13 10 9 13 14 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 7 6 7 11 14 7 8 9 4 4 11 17 11 18 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -7. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 28. 33. 36. 37. 37. 39. 37. 36. 39. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 19.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 09/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 19.0% 14.0% 10.8% 9.1% 12.1% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 28.8% 14.6% 5.1% 3.1% 18.7% 26.5% 32.6% Bayesian: 4.0% 22.9% 5.6% 0.7% 0.5% 4.7% 4.1% 4.9% Consensus: 5.0% 23.6% 11.4% 5.5% 4.3% 11.8% 14.6% 12.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 09/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 39 42 46 52 58 63 66 67 67 69 67 66 69 72 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 41 47 53 58 61 62 62 64 62 61 64 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 42 48 53 56 57 57 59 57 56 59 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 33 39 44 47 48 48 50 48 47 50 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT