* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 09/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 45 52 59 63 68 70 70 65 61 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 45 52 59 63 68 70 70 65 61 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 47 52 57 61 62 59 55 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 4 2 2 6 8 11 7 3 8 20 30 35 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 2 8 0 2 0 -4 2 8 7 8 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 112 112 354 105 193 171 114 92 100 95 183 277 270 289 283 294 276 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.7 27.2 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 137 139 133 127 126 134 128 123 125 123 119 121 124 134 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 130 134 128 122 122 132 122 117 118 116 111 112 114 120 118 119 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 73 72 70 66 60 60 58 57 55 57 61 65 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 14 15 13 12 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 80 77 74 77 81 111 98 91 97 79 60 43 25 -2 -30 -38 -19 200 MB DIV 35 22 13 26 14 14 2 -4 -3 -11 -8 -7 14 14 7 9 36 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 0 5 17 10 12 12 1 11 17 24 20 25 20 4 LAND (KM) 97 183 271 389 508 801 1132 1423 1716 1988 2194 2186 2235 2357 2329 2084 1890 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 11 12 14 14 13 13 11 11 12 13 14 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 13 10 6 8 12 14 6 7 10 2 3 8 11 25 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 12. 8. 4. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 20. 27. 34. 38. 43. 45. 45. 40. 36. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 18.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 09/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 17.6% 13.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 13.2% 5.5% 1.5% 0.8% 6.1% 13.1% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% Consensus: 2.5% 12.1% 6.4% 3.9% 0.3% 2.3% 8.7% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 09/07/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 45 52 59 63 68 70 70 65 61 60 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 42 49 56 60 65 67 67 62 58 57 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 37 44 51 55 60 62 62 57 53 52 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 29 36 43 47 52 54 54 49 45 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT