* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 09/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 55 62 69 76 78 81 76 70 64 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 55 62 69 76 78 81 76 70 64 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 49 55 61 67 70 67 61 56 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 2 1 3 4 4 2 6 3 14 22 28 27 27 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -2 4 1 4 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 71 97 132 23 106 236 226 342 40 311 271 273 276 283 286 284 284 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 138 131 125 124 121 122 120 118 124 130 138 146 155 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 130 133 127 123 122 119 118 114 109 114 119 125 130 133 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 79 77 74 72 70 67 65 64 67 68 70 68 67 66 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 17 19 19 19 20 19 21 19 17 14 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 86 92 85 86 85 82 95 64 54 62 69 73 78 67 64 36 39 200 MB DIV 65 47 37 26 26 19 8 0 40 7 18 14 49 22 43 16 44 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 0 12 12 4 -2 5 2 11 23 30 27 28 18 LAND (KM) 102 163 226 316 443 757 1142 1541 1889 2186 2226 2170 2199 2058 2012 1992 1851 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.2 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.5 24.3 27.8 31.5 35.0 38.0 40.6 43.0 45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 8 10 12 16 18 17 16 14 12 12 12 12 11 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 12 14 9 6 5 4 6 8 1 6 16 17 22 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 372 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 15. 12. 9. 5. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 30. 37. 44. 51. 53. 56. 51. 45. 39. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 18.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 09/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 19.7% 14.3% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 38.7% 22.1% 8.1% 5.2% 14.7% 16.1% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 3.4% 2.3% Consensus: 3.5% 21.3% 12.5% 6.3% 1.8% 5.1% 10.9% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 09/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 40 47 55 62 69 76 78 81 76 70 64 61 63 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 43 51 58 65 72 74 77 72 66 60 57 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 36 44 51 58 65 67 70 65 59 53 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 34 41 48 55 57 60 55 49 43 40 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT