* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 09/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 56 60 64 67 68 67 63 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 56 60 64 67 68 67 63 61 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 50 52 54 55 55 52 49 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 5 6 2 7 8 10 8 15 28 34 32 32 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 -1 2 2 2 2 4 1 2 0 -1 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 42 57 56 31 13 145 284 243 252 242 262 262 274 263 268 256 261 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.8 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.5 26.9 27.5 28.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 136 135 132 123 130 126 124 124 121 125 132 138 151 143 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 127 126 119 128 124 121 120 116 117 122 126 136 122 113 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 79 77 75 72 71 67 67 65 71 72 70 67 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 82 79 81 74 77 86 80 63 66 77 95 87 85 62 18 10 200 MB DIV 63 46 44 26 13 33 33 0 -1 41 33 42 45 53 45 55 56 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 1 13 18 21 18 7 30 30 35 25 10 5 LAND (KM) 92 195 258 322 400 636 969 1351 1760 2104 2169 2150 2187 2094 2008 1750 1625 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.2 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.4 20.5 22.1 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.3 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.2 23.3 26.3 29.8 33.6 37.1 40.4 43.2 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 6 7 9 13 16 18 18 17 16 14 15 14 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 11 11 9 6 8 10 4 9 2 7 19 14 24 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 350 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 3. -1. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 42. 43. 42. 38. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 18.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 09/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 18.6% 13.5% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 47.5% 31.5% 19.3% 14.1% 26.1% 30.4% 23.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 18.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0.5% 5.4% 5.1% 4.7% Consensus: 5.4% 28.3% 16.1% 10.0% 4.9% 10.5% 16.0% 9.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 09/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 56 60 64 67 68 67 63 61 61 61 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 46 52 56 60 63 64 63 59 57 57 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 40 46 50 54 57 58 57 53 51 51 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 37 41 45 48 49 48 44 42 42 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT