* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 07/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 30 31 33 35 37 40 42 41 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 30 31 33 35 37 40 42 41 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 27 26 25 25 25 25 23 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 6 7 6 8 10 10 12 15 18 22 27 30 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 7 5 6 14 13 15 9 9 2 3 -2 -2 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 55 32 358 308 317 262 265 269 261 252 236 250 234 232 229 234 230 SST (C) 27.4 26.6 25.3 24.2 24.3 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.1 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 108 101 102 101 100 99 97 96 96 97 99 96 94 96 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 114 103 96 97 95 92 89 85 83 85 86 87 84 81 84 85 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 59 57 57 53 52 48 44 38 33 28 26 24 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 55 43 42 13 -45 -85 -100 -93 -66 -51 -41 -27 -27 -51 -78 200 MB DIV 5 -8 -5 5 -1 -12 -4 -6 0 1 -7 -17 -16 -22 -41 -25 0 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -4 9 6 30 19 19 3 -4 -16 -18 -14 -13 -3 0 -4 LAND (KM) 245 315 431 529 594 791 1022 1202 1283 1222 1103 959 825 752 731 714 704 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.6 22.1 24.6 26.7 28.3 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.7 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.5 24.6 26.5 27.6 27.7 26.8 25.7 24.7 24.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 15 16 16 13 10 6 4 7 7 6 4 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 9. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 19.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 07/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.9% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.3% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 07/31/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 31 30 31 33 35 37 40 42 41 39 39 39 39 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 29 30 32 34 36 39 41 40 38 38 38 38 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 37 35 35 35 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 21 23 25 27 30 32 31 29 29 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT