* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 07/31/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 38 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 30 28 27 26 25 25 23 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 3 5 3 9 9 10 13 12 20 18 26 29 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 7 6 13 8 13 11 8 5 2 2 -1 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 74 74 73 38 322 341 265 271 280 257 246 240 237 239 248 240 240 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 25.7 24.4 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 121 112 102 103 101 99 100 97 97 98 95 93 91 90 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 114 107 98 97 94 91 89 84 85 87 85 83 81 79 80 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 63 66 65 64 58 55 55 51 49 46 43 38 35 29 25 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 53 37 30 34 1 -61 -100 -103 -95 -68 -47 -34 -24 -15 -28 200 MB DIV 20 23 1 5 2 -6 -12 0 -1 -2 -6 -2 -27 -33 -37 -52 -12 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -12 -8 2 12 30 20 18 0 -9 -23 -15 -11 -5 1 7 LAND (KM) 225 226 286 387 535 692 898 1104 1248 1257 1147 990 836 719 667 680 714 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.7 20.2 22.8 25.1 27.1 28.3 28.2 27.3 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.5 19.6 20.0 20.6 21.5 23.6 25.6 27.2 27.9 27.4 26.2 24.9 24.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 15 16 15 12 9 5 6 9 8 6 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 19.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 07/31/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.5% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.9% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 07/31/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 38 37 37 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 37 39 39 38 37 37 36 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 35 35 34 33 33 32 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 24 26 27 29 29 28 27 27 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT