* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 07/31/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 39 40 40 39 38 38 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 39 40 40 39 38 38 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 32 31 30 28 27 26 25 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 12 9 2 6 6 9 11 12 15 18 19 24 30 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 7 6 13 11 13 9 10 7 7 0 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 82 76 81 86 61 326 257 272 258 257 260 246 253 234 236 237 228 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 25.3 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 118 119 108 102 101 101 100 98 96 95 95 94 93 92 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 111 112 103 97 96 93 90 86 84 84 85 84 82 80 81 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 66 63 56 56 53 50 49 46 41 37 34 30 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 50 55 54 41 21 -28 -78 -107 -109 -84 -57 -37 -34 -29 -45 200 MB DIV 10 12 16 -2 5 -5 -21 -1 -13 -6 -1 -4 -31 -27 -20 -22 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -9 -11 -6 2 28 21 21 6 -2 -17 -13 -14 -12 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 281 264 290 337 434 649 810 1009 1195 1287 1218 1086 902 734 592 523 504 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.6 18.9 21.5 24.1 26.3 28.2 28.8 28.6 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.9 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.1 22.8 24.8 26.5 27.7 27.8 26.7 25.3 23.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 12 15 16 14 11 7 5 8 9 8 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 19.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 07/31/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.1% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 10.7% 9.9% 5.9% 1.9% 3.8% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.7% 7.2% 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 07/31/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 39 40 40 39 38 38 38 38 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 38 39 39 38 37 37 37 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 34 35 35 34 33 33 33 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 25 27 27 28 28 27 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT