* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 07/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 55 55 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 55 55 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 31 32 32 32 31 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 17 18 14 8 0 6 8 11 16 21 26 30 30 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 6 4 1 13 8 13 10 12 10 7 5 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 88 99 108 107 105 102 52 333 281 259 229 244 234 245 239 241 236 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.8 24.2 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 122 122 120 115 108 105 101 99 100 99 98 98 96 94 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 113 112 111 107 102 100 95 91 90 87 87 87 86 84 84 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 61 63 63 58 57 53 50 49 46 42 39 33 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 52 53 60 68 43 29 18 -31 -86 -115 -100 -77 -36 -6 20 200 MB DIV 26 27 23 11 18 2 -13 -9 0 -3 11 12 -3 -20 -17 -16 -16 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 1 2 -2 -3 15 19 25 13 2 -16 -20 -33 -35 -19 LAND (KM) 432 475 510 539 554 581 709 905 1058 1246 1373 1388 1288 1089 892 719 643 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 15.1 16.8 19.0 21.5 23.9 26.3 27.8 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.8 25.4 27.2 28.9 29.6 29.1 27.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 4 8 11 15 15 14 10 7 8 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 30. 28. 27. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 21.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 07/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.0% 11.2% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 3.5% 4.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.8% 5.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 07/30/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 49 52 55 55 52 52 52 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 30 34 39 44 47 50 53 53 50 50 50 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 29 34 39 42 45 48 48 45 45 45 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 22 27 32 35 38 41 41 38 38 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT