* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 07/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 41 48 52 55 59 59 57 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 41 48 52 55 59 59 57 56 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 28 31 33 33 33 32 31 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 16 13 16 8 5 3 8 10 16 14 23 25 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 1 5 6 3 8 10 11 15 14 13 8 4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 86 92 108 126 120 75 70 264 253 257 242 251 239 244 232 231 SST (C) 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.7 24.6 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.5 24.3 24.2 23.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 127 129 128 120 114 113 104 101 100 98 100 100 99 95 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 119 120 119 112 108 108 98 94 91 87 88 89 89 86 82 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 65 65 60 56 52 50 49 48 44 40 37 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 40 42 40 42 60 52 46 22 -1 -55 -100 -134 -119 -99 -53 -26 200 MB DIV 38 28 27 17 20 13 1 -15 -10 3 -2 -12 2 -10 -21 -17 -20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 1 1 0 -5 -2 18 16 21 6 -4 -22 -22 -34 -19 LAND (KM) 411 476 511 544 579 626 723 929 1097 1275 1441 1498 1438 1262 1039 829 695 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.3 15.5 17.6 20.1 22.5 24.8 26.6 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.7 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.3 24.2 25.7 27.5 29.3 30.7 30.8 29.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 4 4 5 6 10 14 15 14 12 7 8 10 10 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 8 12 13 12 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 24. 23. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 23. 27. 30. 34. 34. 32. 31. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 20.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 07/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 15.1% 11.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 6.9% 5.0% 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.7% 5.5% 3.2% 0.2% 0.5% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 07/30/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 32 36 41 48 52 55 59 59 57 56 56 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 34 39 46 50 53 57 57 55 54 54 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 30 35 42 46 49 53 53 51 50 50 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 23 28 35 39 42 46 46 44 43 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT