* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 06/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 32 34 37 43 48 51 51 56 65 67 67 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 32 34 37 30 28 27 27 35 44 45 46 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 26 26 27 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 17 13 9 5 9 8 10 10 20 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 1 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 246 251 251 233 307 46 349 309 293 275 273 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.4 28.8 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 157 150 151 152 156 152 148 146 149 157 151 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 144 135 134 136 141 137 130 129 133 146 148 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 5 7 6 7 5 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 83 82 81 78 82 77 77 75 71 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 13 11 11 12 12 12 16 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 75 67 69 89 101 121 119 132 127 146 149 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 104 80 78 77 54 76 46 54 40 51 56 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 -1 -5 -3 -3 4 -8 -2 -6 1 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 27 99 163 150 142 101 6 -40 -27 -43 -25 180 390 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 5 4 0 0 2 7 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 27 18 19 21 23 20 20 19 20 24 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -1. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 18. 23. 26. 26. 31. 40. 42. 42. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.5 90.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 17.6% 12.3% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 21.3% 8.6% 3.0% 1.1% 5.5% 17.2% 50.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% Consensus: 2.5% 13.1% 7.0% 3.9% 0.4% 1.8% 9.6% 18.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 06/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 31 32 34 37 30 28 27 27 35 44 45 46 47 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 29 31 34 27 25 24 24 32 41 42 43 44 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 27 30 23 21 20 20 28 37 38 39 40 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT