* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 06/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 45 44 43 44 45 46 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 34 36 37 40 43 46 47 46 44 46 47 48 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 29 31 32 32 32 31 33 35 36 37 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 19 19 18 12 12 13 12 17 25 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 4 0 1 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 249 240 253 256 270 320 333 291 275 275 265 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.2 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 155 151 148 150 148 151 154 158 155 144 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 161 141 135 132 133 130 134 136 143 140 130 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 6 5 8 6 8 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 86 83 82 76 77 78 77 74 75 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 61 72 71 72 98 85 110 102 96 96 99 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 103 92 88 94 63 43 25 29 30 59 70 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 6 0 -6 -1 2 0 -4 -1 -6 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -54 30 107 145 167 166 162 111 65 58 111 176 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 4 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 44 24 19 19 21 22 23 23 24 22 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 20. 20. 19. 18. 19. 20. 21. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.9 90.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.7% 12.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 36.7% 16.0% 6.0% 2.8% 12.1% 23.9% 45.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 3.8% Consensus: 4.5% 19.4% 9.8% 5.2% 1.0% 4.1% 11.7% 16.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 06/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 34 36 37 40 43 46 47 46 44 46 47 48 51 52 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 32 35 38 41 42 41 39 41 42 43 46 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 26 29 32 35 36 35 33 35 36 37 40 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 21 24 27 28 27 25 27 28 29 32 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT