* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 06/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 32 37 42 49 50 53 54 58 64 68 73 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 30 32 35 39 34 29 32 35 36 40 35 29 28 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 29 29 29 29 27 27 32 35 38 41 35 29 28 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 18 19 14 5 6 14 21 22 16 12 6 6 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 4 3 2 2 -2 1 2 6 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 259 269 247 232 247 248 248 26 58 72 65 76 82 85 44 55 357 SST (C) 30.6 31.0 30.8 30.1 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.2 28.2 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.2 28.7 30.2 29.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 170 158 157 157 139 139 160 165 168 171 148 173 161 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 171 170 155 144 143 145 131 131 149 155 160 169 145 173 159 141 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 8 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 84 87 83 81 75 78 76 77 79 81 82 82 77 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 12 12 11 12 10 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 65 60 73 81 92 105 113 122 116 104 98 109 140 129 113 78 200 MB DIV 110 83 82 89 91 79 59 56 54 81 71 75 55 89 86 67 68 700-850 TADV 15 4 1 3 -2 -3 -8 -5 -3 -3 -5 1 -3 -5 8 12 20 LAND (KM) -169 -94 -20 48 93 142 105 -92 -62 73 134 169 102 -96 -108 -18 76 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.2 17.8 16.3 15.1 14.5 14.4 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.2 90.5 91.1 91.6 93.0 94.1 95.3 96.2 96.6 96.3 95.3 93.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 6 7 9 8 5 4 6 9 12 13 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 42 42 27 21 22 10 9 22 30 24 23 14 34 44 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 24. 25. 28. 29. 33. 39. 43. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 90.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.98 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 18.4% 12.4% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 50.6% 25.9% 11.2% 7.2% 18.3% 34.0% 65.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 16.0% Consensus: 4.5% 23.4% 12.8% 6.5% 2.4% 6.1% 15.2% 27.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 06/01/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 30 32 35 39 34 29 32 35 36 40 35 29 28 32 18HR AGO 25 24 24 28 30 33 37 32 27 30 33 34 38 33 27 26 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 30 34 29 24 27 30 31 35 30 24 23 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT