* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932020 06/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 28 27 24 26 31 35 39 44 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 13 17 15 9 4 14 15 12 9 10 8 5 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 -2 -2 5 3 1 -1 0 3 4 12 5 10 SHEAR DIR 250 248 262 242 230 252 246 40 27 40 40 41 337 51 89 43 307 SST (C) 30.3 30.6 31.0 30.9 30.6 29.7 29.8 28.9 28.4 29.8 29.9 30.1 29.7 28.6 30.9 30.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 170 169 169 162 164 149 141 163 163 168 162 145 171 172 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 170 169 166 149 150 138 132 151 149 155 153 136 171 169 133 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 7 4 7 5 8 5 8 6 7 5 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 83 84 84 83 81 80 82 80 79 82 83 85 82 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 13 12 11 11 9 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 70 69 81 90 120 110 127 121 127 109 128 129 139 113 85 200 MB DIV 138 121 85 92 97 106 75 65 67 79 73 93 77 72 106 76 62 700-850 TADV 15 15 4 2 5 -6 -6 -1 -2 -5 -3 -6 2 0 0 15 31 LAND (KM) -120 -176 -114 -59 -15 67 58 -33 -67 44 90 83 2 -125 -122 -138 -32 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.2 18.7 18.9 19.2 18.9 17.9 16.7 15.6 15.2 15.3 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.0 90.2 90.5 91.0 92.2 93.5 94.4 95.0 95.3 95.2 94.7 94.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 4 2 3 6 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 7 6 31 48 26 24 17 10 21 22 23 20 8 6 8 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -5. -2. 6. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 40. 44. 46. 49. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -4. 1. 7. 13. 19. 22. 29. 32. 38. 42. 44. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.5 90.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.5 27.5 to 139.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 29.5% 10.4% 6.3% 4.7% 8.6% 26.3% 67.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.9% 9.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.9% 8.8% 22.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932020 INVEST 06/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932020 INVEST 06/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT