* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 10/11/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 47 44 37 30 25 23 22 24 23 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 47 44 37 30 25 23 22 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 45 44 42 40 40 44 48 52 52 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 28 29 27 24 22 21 21 25 25 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 3 1 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 240 241 249 254 274 266 267 234 263 276 280 272 269 SST (C) 25.3 24.5 23.9 23.8 24.4 23.1 22.1 19.6 11.5 18.8 20.8 21.0 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 93 92 98 93 90 83 72 84 90 89 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 80 77 76 81 81 81 77 71 81 86 84 83 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -55.6 -56.3 -56.9 -57.4 -57.8 -58.6 -58.6 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 42 41 42 45 42 46 50 46 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 22 21 19 16 12 8 5 4 4 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 86 121 126 122 144 147 64 66 41 -12 -14 -18 -16 200 MB DIV 37 42 34 34 48 53 3 22 17 4 5 2 3 700-850 TADV 13 3 2 -4 0 -14 -23 -36 -13 4 -22 -1 36 LAND (KM) 394 370 346 329 331 397 410 516 537 1178 1647 916 251 LAT (DEG N) 38.4 38.6 38.8 39.0 39.1 39.7 40.5 41.7 42.6 42.4 41.1 39.8 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.8 68.9 68.8 68.5 66.5 62.6 57.0 49.5 39.5 28.9 19.8 12.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 5 12 18 25 33 40 38 32 29 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -27. -30. -31. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -25. -27. -28. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 38.4 68.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 10/11/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 10/11/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 10/11/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 48 47 44 37 30 25 23 22 24 23 18HR AGO 50 49 48 47 46 43 36 29 24 22 21 23 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 41 34 27 22 20 19 21 20 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 36 29 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT