* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 09/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 43 47 49 50 50 52 51 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 32 28 27 27 27 27 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 18 14 16 20 11 8 2 10 12 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 0 4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 -3 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 141 104 108 99 94 112 137 120 291 347 342 343 354 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.4 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 170 170 147 144 146 144 144 144 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 164 162 164 159 133 130 130 127 125 125 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 10 12 9 11 9 10 9 10 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 60 64 65 65 65 70 72 71 69 69 66 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 12 11 9 6 3 1 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 32 23 21 25 23 4 -8 -7 15 38 48 64 200 MB DIV 22 7 5 31 39 10 23 10 25 -1 18 14 3 700-850 TADV -4 4 6 3 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 388 304 225 154 72 -112 -327 -362 -268 -179 -88 5 65 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.3 23.8 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.8 95.6 96.3 97.1 98.9 101.0 102.9 104.5 106.0 107.3 108.4 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 10 10 8 7 6 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 84 74 71 77 63 20 18 8 16 14 13 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -15. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 22. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.6 94.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 09/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.94 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 21.7% 14.5% 9.4% 9.1% 10.3% 13.4% 22.8% Logistic: 7.2% 25.8% 14.3% 9.1% 5.9% 20.2% 46.9% 67.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 14.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 4.6% 58.7% Consensus: 4.9% 20.7% 10.3% 6.3% 5.1% 10.5% 21.6% 49.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 09/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 09/03/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 29 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 29 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 24 20 19 19 19 19 21 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT