* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 09/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 47 49 49 49 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 33 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 13 16 12 16 18 10 8 4 3 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 1 3 -5 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 166 148 117 125 108 105 145 154 178 320 330 355 28 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.2 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 142 142 145 144 144 144 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 164 163 161 155 128 128 130 126 125 125 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 10 12 8 12 7 12 7 11 6 8 700-500 MB RH 59 57 60 63 62 66 69 69 70 70 65 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 12 13 13 11 9 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 16 17 28 24 12 2 5 10 28 58 52 200 MB DIV 20 17 -3 13 50 5 23 11 27 1 20 24 7 700-850 TADV 1 -3 4 6 2 -2 2 2 0 2 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 407 321 247 166 82 -122 -344 -350 -268 -149 -41 56 59 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.1 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.1 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.3 95.2 96.1 97.0 99.0 101.2 103.4 105.0 106.6 107.9 109.1 110.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 10 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 70 80 77 77 52 17 13 16 13 13 13 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 24. 24. 24. 25. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.8 93.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 09/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.97 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 32.8% 18.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 39.2% 27.2% 16.2% 8.4% 23.8% 38.2% 55.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 9.0% Consensus: 6.7% 26.3% 16.0% 9.1% 2.9% 8.0% 17.6% 21.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 09/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 09/03/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 31 33 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 28 25 24 24 24 24 28 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 22 19 18 18 18 18 22 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT