* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 09/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 50 50 50 51 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 10 13 12 18 8 7 4 10 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 -3 2 -1 -1 -5 0 0 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 136 143 146 112 112 99 108 136 111 319 332 322 336 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 28.9 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 170 170 150 144 148 145 144 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 161 164 162 166 135 131 133 128 126 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 10 9 11 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 66 67 66 67 70 71 70 69 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 11 10 10 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 29 27 23 25 20 6 0 2 22 44 47 200 MB DIV 13 26 22 -11 9 37 19 32 16 17 -3 22 8 700-850 TADV 4 1 -3 4 6 1 3 1 3 -2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 347 373 408 356 281 133 -51 -286 -386 -275 -179 -94 0 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.3 23.8 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 92.6 93.3 94.2 95.0 96.5 98.3 100.6 102.6 104.4 106.0 107.3 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 66 67 79 83 72 77 25 18 8 16 14 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 7. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.8 91.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 09/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 22.2% 15.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 39.4% 25.0% 21.3% 18.8% 45.5% 60.0% 78.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 6.1% Consensus: 5.7% 21.7% 14.1% 10.5% 6.3% 15.2% 24.8% 28.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 09/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 09/02/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 34 28 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 29 23 21 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT