* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 09/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 30 39 44 47 46 48 52 55 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 30 29 28 27 27 27 32 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 23 26 26 27 27 32 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 14 12 11 15 16 16 12 7 6 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 -1 -4 0 -2 -1 -5 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 162 146 147 149 116 114 107 138 117 168 360 17 22 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.4 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 170 170 148 147 148 146 144 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 162 162 163 163 157 133 133 133 130 128 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 9 7 12 8 12 7 12 8 11 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 60 64 66 68 72 73 71 72 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 23 23 19 22 23 18 0 -7 19 22 28 200 MB DIV 13 16 17 16 -9 40 24 23 38 16 8 10 6 700-850 TADV 0 4 1 -1 0 2 -1 3 0 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 426 441 377 316 235 82 -82 -275 -339 -188 -59 45 82 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.2 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 93.1 93.9 94.7 95.5 97.0 98.6 100.5 102.5 104.3 106.0 107.4 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 76 74 85 78 74 65 23 21 19 16 12 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 7. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 19. 24. 27. 26. 28. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.5 92.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 09/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.9 27.5 to 139.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 34.8% 19.9% 15.1% 12.0% 33.8% 46.5% 81.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 4.5% Consensus: 1.7% 11.8% 6.7% 5.1% 4.0% 11.3% 15.6% 28.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 09/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 09/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 30 29 28 27 27 27 32 35 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 29 28 27 26 26 26 31 34 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 25 24 23 22 22 22 27 30 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT