* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 36 46 55 63 68 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 36 46 52 51 57 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 40 46 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 9 8 6 7 1 6 6 14 11 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 -2 0 -4 -1 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 75 84 117 135 175 221 340 268 330 260 304 292 291 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.7 27.7 28.3 28.0 28.0 25.9 27.3 26.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 121 123 135 143 138 138 114 130 118 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 124 121 123 135 143 138 138 113 130 118 131 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 46 43 41 40 39 38 41 44 47 50 52 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 7 9 12 20 12 29 31 48 52 79 79 200 MB DIV 18 9 -6 -19 -32 -6 4 33 -7 25 17 17 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 -1 -4 -6 -1 1 4 4 9 14 LAND (KM) 1091 973 888 789 694 545 399 186 32 54 83 35 206 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.7 11.2 12.3 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 45.2 46.7 48.3 49.9 53.0 56.2 59.3 62.2 64.8 67.6 70.4 73.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 16 15 16 16 15 13 13 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 2 3 15 17 12 12 0 6 2 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 21. 30. 38. 43. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 43.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.9% 11.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.8% 5.1% 1.7% 1.2% 6.0% 5.9% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 9.3% 5.5% 3.2% 0.4% 2.0% 6.1% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 07/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/13/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 29 36 46 52 51 57 61 62 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 28 35 45 51 50 56 60 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 32 42 48 47 53 57 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 26 36 42 41 47 51 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT