* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932019 07/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 46 53 62 67 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 46 47 46 56 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 31 40 46 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 11 9 6 4 3 4 5 9 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 3 3 4 1 -2 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 79 71 81 103 115 185 281 29 275 352 262 317 272 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.0 25.9 26.8 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 124 126 128 135 140 139 138 114 123 120 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 124 126 128 135 140 139 138 114 123 120 116 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 11 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 47 46 43 41 40 39 41 45 49 47 53 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 20 10 3 2 23 21 30 30 49 60 67 83 200 MB DIV 25 11 13 0 -16 -20 -5 22 27 -1 32 11 31 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 -2 -5 -3 -3 3 7 5 13 LAND (KM) 1245 1112 1015 925 824 650 531 311 -11 -9 51 34 97 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.9 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 43.6 45.2 46.8 48.3 51.5 54.8 58.1 61.1 64.0 66.7 69.6 72.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 16 16 15 15 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 3 5 6 11 20 15 11 0 2 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 21. 28. 37. 42. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 41.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932019 INVEST 07/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.9% 11.5% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.5% 2.9% 3.6% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.2% 4.7% 2.9% 0.2% 1.0% 5.2% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932019 INVEST 07/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932019 INVEST 07/13/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 46 47 46 56 61 61 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 28 33 45 46 45 55 60 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 30 42 43 42 52 57 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 36 37 36 46 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT